Amazing to see everyone beating up on the Toronto Raptors.  With expectations so high (too high, maybe?), not even making the playoff’s for the second straight year means anything.  Well, I for one, think there are more than enough reasons for the team to be in the position they are in – and in the grand scheme of things, it’s not as bad as people want to make it out to be.

    Did you really think Toronto was going to the NBA Finals this season?  What if the Raps finished with 48, or even 50 wins – right behind the Orlando Magic, and better than last years 47 wins?  Even with all those wins, do you honestly believe Bosh and company have enough in them to beat LeBron James and the Cavs?  I don’t!  Not yet.  And boy…wouldn’t that be a let down – 50 wins and a first round exit?

    About a month ago, I looked at the Raptors schedule up and down.  Looked at who they beat, their losses, who was left on the schedule, how many plus .500 teams they had to face, etc…etc…  I did the same for Cleveland, Washington, and Philadelphia.  What I ultimately came up with was (I did share this with our TV crew - so even the Swirsk can back me on this one, right Chuck?), that Toronto would end up tied with the Sixers at 41 wins.  If that does happen, the Raps end up sixth, and since they own the tiebreaker with Philadelphia, they get the best possible first round match-up – the Orlando magic.

    Now, since then, a couple of things have happened that I did not plan on.  The Raptors beat Detroit at the ACC, and Philly beat both Boston and Detroit.  And so, here we have it, Toronto is in a dog fight to get even with Sammy ‘D’ and the 76ers, with four games to go. 

    Philly has two plus .500 teams left to play – the Wizards and the Cavs, plus an Indiana team that is 7-3 in their last 10, and fighting to catch Atlanta for the eighth spot in the East, before they finish at Charlotte.  The Raptors face the Nets, Detroit away – the only team above .500 they have left to play, Miami (Joel Anthony), and Chicago on the road.  So if my calculations and prediction serve me correctly, Toronto will go 3-1, and the Sixers will go 2-2, leaving them tied at 42-40.  And you know what that means – Orlando!!

    Okay, now that we got that out of the way, why is Toronto where they are?  Simple.  Jorge Garbajosa’s absence has hurt this team far greater than people want to admit.  He gave the Raptors the intangibles – toughness, smarts, and he played with an edge.  Jorge also knows how to play, and his on court IQ was sorely missed this season.  Funny, the toughness that made him gamble and play for Spain last summer on a bum leg (he wanted the triple crown of European Ball – the World’s, the Euro’s - they lost to Russia at home in Spain, and this summer’s Olympics), was also the toughness that inspired Bryan Colangelo and Maurizio Gherardini to go after him, and the reckless abandon he is now criticized for.  Bottom line is this – his absence has not been accounted for.

    Next up is the point guard controversy.  What was once the pride and joy of the Raptors and symbolic of their depth and ability to go to their bench – two point guards, both talented, game changers, uniquely different, and wonderfully compatible, suddenly became the problem.  Who starts, minutes, shots, mistakes, and raised eyebrows from the bench and above, have changed the chemistry of the Raptors.  For good or for bad, Jose Calderon stepped up and offered up his starting spot to TJ Ford, and all seemed well again.  But the reality is, things are not well, and even though it has all been pushed under the carpet, the issue is still there, simmering, and it is felt by all.

    Sam Mitchell needs production out of Andrea Bargnani.  Period.  Somehow, someway, the Raptors need to get more out of their number one pick from Italy.  Whatever the reasons – sophomore jinx, not enough coddling, starting – then not starting, bad pasta (is that even possible in Toronto…would the Italian community allow that to happen?), Andrea has to give his team numbers when he plays.  Here’s my prediction – in the playoffs, especially if the Raps face Orlando, number 7 will come to life.  He has played enough big games in his Euro career to step up, and the playoff environment may be just what he needs.

    Finally, look no further than Chris Bosh, the Raptors one and only star, if you want to find a reason why this season has been a struggle.  Right from training camp on, Bosh’s health has held him, and his team back.  Chris has only enjoyed about a two-month widow of health and happiness this season, and it happened to be while TJ was out of the line-up.  The stress of getting healthy, rehab, conditioning, playing, not playing, and just not being oneself, has taken its toll on Toronto’s franchise player.  Bosh appears to me to be tired – both mentally and physically.  He is fighting, as he always does, to get past this injury wall, and hopefully he can get strong enough to make a playoff run, but he still will not be 100%.  And the reality is this - the Raptors cannot win without their main man getting it done, inside and out.

    I can’t wait until next Wednesday night – right after the Raptors last game in Chicago.  It will be then that we know – Disney World…or the Motor City.  Trust me Mickey…I’m keeping my fingers crossed!